Hōʻike nā hopena o ka hōʻike ʻana i ka hilinaʻi ʻana i ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i ka ikehu i hui pū ʻia me CCUS a me NETs wale nō ke ala kumu kūʻai no ka decarbonization hohonu o nā ʻāpana HTA o Kina, ʻoi aku ka nui o nā ʻoihana kaumaha.ʻO ka mea hou aku, hiki i ka hoʻohana nui ʻana o ka hydrogen maʻemaʻe i nā ʻāpana HTA ke kōkua iā Kina e hoʻokō pono i ke kumukūʻai kūʻai kalapona i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me kahi ʻano me ka hana ʻole o ka hydrogen maʻemaʻe.Hāʻawi nā hopena i ke alakaʻi ikaika no ke ala decarbonization HTA o Kina a me kahi kuhikuhi waiwai no nā ʻāina ʻē aʻe e kū nei i nā pilikia like.
Decarbonizing ʻoihana ʻoihana HTA me ka hydrogen maʻemaʻe
Hoʻokō mākou i ka hoʻohui ʻia ʻana o nā kumu kūʻai liʻiliʻi loa o nā ala mitigation i ke kalapona neutrality no Kina i ka makahiki 2060. ʻEhā mau hiʻohiʻona hoʻohālike i wehewehe ʻia ma ka Papa 1: ʻoihana e like me ka mea maʻamau (BAU), ʻo Kina's Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement (NDC), net- ʻaʻohe hoʻokuʻu me nā noi wai ʻole (ZERO-NH) a me nā hoʻokuʻu net-zero me ka hydrogen maʻemaʻe (ZERO-H).ʻO nā māhele HTA i loko o kēia haʻawina e pili ana i ka hana ʻenehana o ka sima, ka hao a me ke kila a me nā kemika nui (me ka amonia, soda a me ka soda caustic) a me ka lawe ʻana i nā hana kaumaha, me ka hoʻokele kaʻa a me ka hoʻouna ʻana i ka home.Hāʻawi ʻia nā kikoʻī holoʻokoʻa ma ka ʻāpana Methods a me nā memo Hoʻohui 1–5.E pili ana i ka ʻāpana hao a me ke kila, ʻo ka hapa nui o ka hana i loaʻa ma Kina (89.6%) ma ke kaʻina hana o ka oxygen-blast furnace kumu, kahi paʻakikī nui no ka decarbonization hohonu o kēia.
ʻoihana.ʻO ke kaʻina o ka umu ahi uila he 10.4% wale nō o ka hana ʻana ma Kina i 2019, ʻo ia ka 17.5% ka liʻiliʻi ma mua o ka māhele awelika honua a he 59.3% ka liʻiliʻi ma mua o ka United States18.Mākou i kālailai 60 ki steelmaking emissions mitigation 'enehana i loko o ke kŘkohu a hoʻokaʻawale iā lākou i eono waeʻano (Fig. 2a): hoʻomaikaʻi i ka pono waiwai, holomua 'enehana hana, electrification, CCUS,'ōmaʻomaʻo hydrogen a me ka uliuli hydrogen (Supplementary Table 1).ʻO ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana i nā kumukūʻai ʻōnaehana o ZERO-H me nā hiʻohiʻona NDC a me ZERO-NH e hōʻike ana i ka hoʻokomo ʻana i nā koho hydrogen maʻemaʻe e hāʻawi i ka hoʻemi kalapona kaulana ma muli o ka hoʻokomo ʻana i nā kaʻina hana hydrogen-direct reduction o ka hao (hydrogen-DRI).E hoʻomaopopo ʻaʻole hiki i ka hydrogen ke lawelawe ma ke ʻano he kumu ikehu i ka hana kila akā he mea hoʻemi hoʻemi carbon-abating ma ke kumu hoʻohui i ke kaʻina Blast Furnance-Basic Oxygen Furnance (BF-BOF) a me 100% ma ke ala hydrogen-DRI.Ma lalo o ZERO-H, e hoʻemi ʻia ka mahele o BF-BOF i 34% i ka makahiki 2060, me 45% umu ahi arc a me 21% hydrogen-DRI, a e hāʻawi ka hydrogen maʻemaʻe i ka 29% o ka nui o ka koi o ka ikehu hope loa ma ka māhele.Me ke kumu kūʻai pūnaewele no ka mana o ka lā a me ka makani i manaʻo ʻiaemi iho i ka US$38–40MWh−1 i 205019, ke kumu kūʻai o ka hydrogen ʻōmaʻomaʻo.
e emi iho ana, a hiki i ka 100% hydrogen-DRI ke hana i kahi hana koʻikoʻi ma mua o ka mea i ʻike mua ʻia.E pili ana i ka hana ʻana o ka sima, ʻo ke kumu hoʻohālike he 47 mau ʻenehana mitigation nui ma waena o nā kaʻina hana i hoʻokaʻawale ʻia i ʻeono mau ʻāpana (Nā Papa Hoʻohui 2 a me 3): ka pono o ka ikehu, nā wahie ʻē aʻe, e hōʻemi ana i ka ratio clinker-to-cement, CCUS, ʻōmaʻomaʻo hydrogen a me ka hydrogen uliuli ( Kii 2b).Hōʻike nā hualoaʻa e hiki i nā ʻenehana hoʻoikaika ikaika ke hoʻemi i ka 8-10% wale nō o ka nui o ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana o CO2 i ka ʻāpana sima, a ʻo ka hui ʻana o ka wela-wela a me nā ʻenehana oxy-fuel e loaʻa i ka hopena mitigation (4-8%).Hiki i nā ʻenehana no ka hoʻemi ʻana i ka ratio clinker-to-cement ke hāʻawi i ka hoʻēmi kalapona kiʻekiʻe (50-70%), ʻo ka mea nui me ka decarbonized maka kumu no ka hana ʻana i ka clinker me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka puʻu puʻupuʻu granulated slag, ʻoiai ke nīnau nei ka poʻe hoʻohewa inā e paʻa nā ʻano mea pono i ka hopena.Akā ʻo nā hopena o kēia manawa e hōʻike ana i ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka hydrogen me CCUS hiki ke kōkua i ka ʻāpana cement e hoʻokō kokoke-zero CO2 i ka makahiki 2060.
Ma ka ZERO-H scenario, 20 hydrogen-based technologies (mai loko mai o 47 mitigation technologies) i komo i ka hana sima.ʻIke mākou he haʻahaʻa ke kumu kūʻai hoʻemi kalapona o nā ʻenehana hydrogen ma mua o ka CCUS maʻamau a me nā ala hoʻololi wahie (Fig. 2b).Eia kekahi, ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o ka hydrogen ʻōmaʻomaʻo ma mua o ka hydrogen uliuli ma hope o 2030 e like me ka mea i kūkākūkā ʻia ma lalo nei, ma kahi o US $0.7–US$1.6 kg−1 H2 (ref. 20), e lawe mai ana i nā hōʻemi nui CO2 i ka hoʻolako ʻana i ka wela ʻoihana i ka hana sima. .Hōʻike nā hopena o kēia manawa hiki ke hoʻemi i ka 89-95% o ka CO2 mai ke kaʻina hana hoʻomehana ma ka ʻoihana Kina (Fig. 2b, ʻenehana.
28–47), i kulike me ka manao o ka Hydrogen Council o 84–92% (ref. 21).Pono e hoʻemi ʻia ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana o ke kaʻina Clinker CO2 e CCUS ma ZERO-H a me ZERO-NH.Hoʻohālike pū mākou i ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka hydrogen ma ke ʻano he meaʻai i ka hana ʻana i ka ammonia, methane, methanol a me nā kemika ʻē aʻe i helu ʻia ma ka wehewehe hoʻohālike.Ma ka ZERO-H scenario, e loaʻa i ka 20% ka māhele o ka nui o ka hana ma 2060 (Fig. 3 a me ka Papa Hoʻohui 4).Aia i loko o ke kŘkohu nā ʻano ʻenehana hana methanol: ka lanahu i ka methanol (CTM), ke kinoea coke i ka methanol (CGTM), ke kinoea maoli i ka methanol (NTM) a me CGTM/NTM me ka wela hydrogen.Ma ka ZERO-H scenario, CGTM / NTM me ka wela hydrogen hiki ke hoʻokō i ka 21% kaʻana hana ma 2060 (Fig. 3).ʻO nā kemika kekahi mea lawe ikehu o ka hydrogen.Ma ke kumu o kā mākou loiloi hoʻohui, hiki i ka hydrogen ke komo i ka 17% o ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka ikehu hope no ka hāʻawi ʻana i ka wela i ka ʻoihana kemika e 2060. Me ka bioenergy (18%) a me ka uila (32%), he kuleana nui ka hydrogen e pāʻani ai. 
decarbonization o ka ʻoihana kemika HTA o Kina (Fig. 4a).
Kii 2 |ʻO ka hiki ke hoʻemi ʻia ke kalapona a me nā kumukūʻai hoʻemi o nā ʻenehana hoʻemi nui.a, ʻEono waeʻano o 60 kī kila kila emissions enehana mitigation.b, ʻEono waeʻano o nā ʻenehana hoʻemi ʻana i ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana o ka sima kī.Hoʻopaʻa ʻia nā ʻenehana ma ka helu, me nā wehewehe pili i hoʻokomo ʻia ma ka Papa Pākuʻi 1 no ka a a me ka Papa Pākuʻi 2 no ka b.Hōʻailona ʻia nā pae mākaukau ʻenehana (TRL) o kēlā me kēia ʻenehana: TRL3, manaʻo;TRL4, prototype liʻiliʻi;TRL5, prototype nui;TRL6, prototype piha ma ka unahi;TRL7, hōʻike mua-kālepa;TRL8, hoikeike;TRL10, apono mua;TRL11, makua.
Hoʻopau i nā ʻano kaʻa kaʻa HTA me ka hydrogen maʻemaʻe Ma ke kumu o nā hopena hoʻohālike, hiki i ka hydrogen ke hoʻoneʻe i ka ʻāpana halihali o Kina, ʻoiai e lōʻihi ka manawa.Ma waho aʻe o nā LDV, ʻo nā ʻano kaʻa kaʻa ʻē aʻe i kālailai ʻia i loko o ke kŘkohu me nā kaʻa kaʻa, nā kaʻa (māmā/liʻiliʻi/kaumaha), hoʻouna moku a me nā alahao, e uhi ana i ka hapa nui o ka halihali ma Kina.No nā LDV, nānā nā kaʻa uila i ka hoʻokūkū koʻikoʻi i ka wā e hiki mai ana.Ma ZERO-H, ke komo ʻana o ka wahie hydrogen (HFC) o ka mākeke LDV e hōʻea wale i 5% ma 2060 (Fig. 3).No nā kaʻa ʻauwaʻa, eia naʻe, ʻoi aku ke kumukūʻai o nā kaʻa kaʻa HFC ma mua o nā mea ʻokoʻa uila ma 2045 a loaʻa iā 61% o ka nui o nā ʻauwaʻa ma 2060 ma ke ʻano ZERO-H, me ke koena uila (Fig. 3).No nā kaʻa kaʻa, ʻokoʻa nā hopena ma muli o ka nui o ka ukana.E hoʻokele kaʻa uila ma mua o ka hapalua o ka nui o nā ʻauwaʻa kaʻa māmā i ka makahiki 2035 ma ZERO-NH.Akā ma ZERO-H, ʻoi aku ka hoʻokūkū o nā kaʻa kaʻa māmā HFC ma mua o nā kaʻa uila uila ma 2035 a loaʻa iā 53% o ka mākeke ma 2060. E pili ana i nā kaʻa kaumaha, hiki i nā kaʻa kaumaha HFC i 66% o ka mākeke ma 2060 i ka ZERO-H scenario.Diesel/bio-diesel/CNG (compressed natural gas) HDVs (nā kaʻa kaumaha) e haʻalele i ka mākeke ma hope o 2050 ma nā hiʻohiʻona ZERO-NH a me ZERO-H (Fig. 3).ʻOi aku ka maikaʻi o nā kaʻa HFC ma mua o nā kaʻa uila i kā lākou hana ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi ma nā kūlana anuanu, mea nui ma ka ʻākau a me ke komohana Kina.Ma waho aʻe o ka lawe ʻana i ke alanui, hōʻike ke kumu hoʻohālike i ka hoʻohana nui ʻana o nā ʻenehana hydrogen i ka hoʻouna ʻana ma ke ʻano ZERO-H.ʻO ka hoʻouna moku ʻāina o Kina he ikaika nui a he paʻakikī paʻakikī hoʻi ka decarbonization.Hoʻomaʻemaʻe hydrogen, ʻoi aku hoʻi ma ke ʻano he
mea hānai no ka amonia, hāʻawi i kahi koho no ka hoʻouna decarbonization.ʻO ka hopena liʻiliʻi loa i ka ZERO-H scenario ka hopena i ka 65% ke komo ʻana o ka ammonia-fuelled a me 12% o nā moku hydrogen-fuelled i 2060 (Fig. 3).Ma kēia hiʻohiʻona, e helu ka hydrogen i ka awelika o 56% o ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka ikehu hope loa o ka ʻoihana holoʻokoʻa holoʻokoʻa ma 2060. Ua hoʻohālike pū mākou i ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka hydrogen i ka hoʻomehana hale (Supplementary Note 6), akā ʻaʻole i hoʻopaʻa ʻia a hoʻopaʻa ʻia kēia pepa. ka hoʻohana hydrogen i nā ʻoihana HTA a me ka halihali kaumaha.ʻO ke kumu kūʻai o ke kūʻokoʻa kalapona me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka hydrogen maʻemaʻe ʻO ka wā e hiki mai ana ka carbon-neutral Kina e ʻike ʻia e ka mana hou o ka ikehu, me ka hoʻopau ʻana o ka lanahu i kāna hoʻohana ikehu mua (Fig. 4).Loaʻa nā wahie non-fossil i ka 88% o ka hui ʻana o ka ikehu mua ma 2050 a me 93% ma 2060 ma lalo o ZERO-H. ʻO ka makani a me ka lā e hāʻawi i ka hapalua o ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka ikehu mua ma 2060. Ma ka awelika, ma ka ʻāina, ka māhele hydrogen maʻemaʻe o ka ikehu hope loa. hiki ke hōʻea i ka 13% i ka makahiki 2060. No ka noʻonoʻo ʻana i ka heterogeneity kūloko o nā mana hana i nā ʻoihana koʻikoʻi ma o ka ʻāina (Pākuʻi Pākuʻi 7), he ʻumi mau panalāʻau me nā māhele hydrogen o TFEC kiʻekiʻe aʻe ma mua o ka awelika aupuni, me Inner Mongolia, Fujian, Shandong a me Guangdong, i alakaʻi ʻia e nā kumuwaiwai makani nui a me uka a me waho a/a i ʻole nā koi ʻoihana nui no ka hydrogen.I ka ZERO-NH scenario, ʻo ke kumukūʻai kumulative investment no ka hoʻokō ʻana i ka carbon neutrality a hiki i 2060 he $20.63 trillion, a i ʻole 1.58% o ka huina kālā nui (GDP) no 2020–2060.ʻO ka awelika o ka hoʻokomo kālā ʻana i kēlā me kēia makahiki ma kahi o US $ 516 biliona i kēlā me kēia makahiki.Ua kūlike kēia hopena me ka hoʻolālā hoʻohaʻahaʻa $15 trillion a Kina a hiki i ka makahiki 2050, he awelika kālā hou o ka makahiki he $500 biliona (ref. 22).Eia nō naʻe, ʻo ka hoʻokomo ʻana i nā koho hydrogen maʻemaʻe i loko o ka ʻōnaehana ikehu o Kina a me nā meaʻai meaʻai ʻoihana i ka hiʻohiʻona ZERO-H ka hopena i kahi hoʻopukapuka kumulative haʻahaʻa loa o US $18.91 trillion e 2060 a me ka makahiki.e hoʻemi ʻia ka hoʻopukapuka kālā ma lalo o 1% o GDP ma 2060 (Fig.4).E pili ana i nā ʻāpana HTA, ke kumukūʻai hoʻolimalima makahiki i kēlāaia ma kahi o US $392 biliona i kēlā me kēia makahiki ma ka ZERO-NHscenario, i kūlike me ka projection o ka EnergyKomisina Transition (US$400 billion) (ref. 23).Eia naʻe, inā maʻemaʻe
Hoʻokomo ʻia ka hydrogen i loko o ka ʻōnaehana ikehu a me nā meaʻai meaʻai kemika, ʻo ka ZERO-H scenario e hōʻike ana i ke kumukūʻai hoʻolimalima makahiki ma nā ʻāpana HTA hiki ke hoʻemi ʻia i US $359 biliona, ʻoi loa ma ka hoʻemi ʻana i ka hilinaʻi ʻana i nā CCUS a i ʻole NETs kumu kūʻai.Hōʻike kā mākou hopena e hiki i ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka hydrogen maʻemaʻe ke mālama i ka US $ 1.72 trillion i ke kumukūʻai hoʻopukapuka a pale i ka 0.13% nalowale i ka GDP aggregate (2020–2060) i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me kahi ala me ka hydrogen a hiki i 2060.
Kii 3 |Ke komo ʻana o ka ʻenehana i nā ʻāpana HTA maʻamau.Nā hualoaʻa ma lalo o nā hiʻohiʻona BAU, NDC, ZERO-NH a me ZERO-H (2020–2060).I kēlā me kēia makahiki milestone, hōʻike ʻia ke komo ʻana o ka ʻenehana i nā ʻāpana like ʻole e nā kaola kala, kahi o kēlā me kēia pā he pākēneka o ke komo ʻana a hiki i 100% (no ka lattice i uhi ʻia).Hoʻopili houʻia nāʻenehana e nāʻano likeʻole (i hōʻikeʻia ma nā kaʻao).CNG, kinoea maoli i hoʻopili ʻia;LPG, kinoea ʻaila wai;LNG, kinoea maoli wai;w/wo, me ka ʻole a i ʻole;EAF, umu ahi arc;NSP, kaʻina hana maloʻo preheater hoʻokuʻu hou;WHR, hoʻihoʻi hou i ka wela.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Mar-13-2023
